Wednesday, January 25, 2017

The Big Picture

The recent protests have illustrated that there is a much bigger underlying problem in our country, and demonstrates how the Democrats are as much to blame for Trump’s getting elected as are the Republicans.

Trump is everything that the protesters claim, but that is not why people voted for him.  Most Republications were as offended by his racist, bigoted comments and actions as were the rest of us. 

No, they voted for him because he represented resistance to what they perceived as an attack on their way of life.  Christianity is being systematically attacked in this country, while Islam is being celebrated.  The Second Amendment is doomed.  Illegal immigrants are taking jobs away from hard-working Americans, and are getting welfare benefits most Americans are not even eligible for. The middle class is increasingly bearing the weight of a lower class unwilling to work and living on welfare, while the rich are paying less in taxes every year.  Violent crime is on the rise, fueled by illegal immigrants who flout our laws and simply return if they are deported. Terrorism attacks are on the rise, yet we are letting more and more refugees from Syria and other dangerous countries in without the slightest vetting.

Now, we all know that none of the above claims are true, but each does have a little bit of basis in fact, and Trump used those nuggets to form the core of his message.  If you ignore the outrageous things he said, you will see that his core message relentlessly repeated and validated their fears, citing specific, but isolated, facts to support his claims.

At the same time, he relentlessly attacked each of his opponents, identifying and amplifying each of their weaknesses.  While most politicians avoid naming their opponents, referring to them as “my esteemed opponent” or some other civilized title, Trump went the other direction and not only named them, but gave them catchy nicknames as well:  “Crooked Hillary”, “Lying Ted”, etc.  He repeated and embellished false allegations to the point that the lie became the truth.

By the end of the campaign, most Trump supporters honestly believed Hillary was the most corrupt individual to walk the planet since Hitler. They honestly believed their entire way of life was being threatened.  They were, and are, good, honest, hard-working Americans who just want a better life for themselves and their kids. Just like us!

At the same time, the Democrats failed to recognize this. Instead, we all focused on Trump’s outrageous antics and ignored his core messages. We labeled and belittled Trump’s supporters in much the same way he belittled Hillary, Ted, Bernie, and the rest. All that did was deepen the divide.  The more that people and institutions attacked Trump on his racist and bigotry issues while ignoring his actual policy flaws, the more isolated Trump supporters became. Isolation creates paranoia, and Trump encouraged that by claiming that everything was rigged against him and his supporters.  It became truly an “Us VS Them” mentality.

By late summer, Trump’s core supporters were not even willing to listen to anything anti-Trump. They believed that he recognized the coming end of their way of life, and they believed he could stop it. They realized that much most of his racist rhetoric was just that, and focused on his core message.  They saw their only choices were between a dedicated, even if rather immoral, outsider who could clean up the corruption (Trump), or the ultimate, corrupted insider (Hillary).

NOW HE IS THE PRESIDENT.

Our only hope to reunite the country is to stop attacking the Trump Supporters and further alienating them. Just because they supported Trump does NOT make them racists and bigots.  They voted for who they thought cared about them. We need to stop focusing on Trump’s actions of the past. We need to stop focusing on every little mistake he makes. We need to stop relentlessly attacking everything about him.

Instead, we need to focus on POLICIES.  We need to start spreading a POSITIVE message. We need to explain how the Democrats’ policies will make THEIR LIVES BETTER. We need to tone down the “political correctness” and feelings of superiority. Some of Trump’s policies are NOT all bad, and we need to support them and offer suggestions to make them better. Which would YOU rather have told to you:  “Your idea sucks, but mine is awesome!” or “I like your idea!  But how about we do this as well, or maybe do this part instead?”     

We could begin by admitting Obamacare is not the greatest law this country has ever passed.  Let’s stop focusing solely on its successes, and admitting to some of its flaws.  Let’s say, “Obamacare has helped 20 million Americans, but it has resulted in higher premiums, hospital expenses, and out of control drug costs.  How can we work together to lower the costs of premiums, drugs, and hospital stays?  How can we help you Republicans FIX the problems?”  

It will be a hell of a lot harder for the Republicans to ignore Democrats who are asking how they can help than it is to ignore those who just attack everything they say or do.  It’s easy to hate the haters.  It’s hard to hate those who are trying to help.

Let’s be part of the SOLUTION and not part of the problem.

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Trump's Business Conflicts

Much has been written about Trump’s potential conflicts of interest, and they are valid concerns.

But I must side with Trump on this issue.  Unlike our previous presidents, Trump’s assets do not consist of stocks, bonds, and other easily liquidated assets.  Instead, his assets are the Trump Organization itself, something that is inextricably tied to him personally.

Let’s be clear on what a Blind Trust really is.  To setup a Blind Trust, Trump would need to turn over all his assets to a trustee, who would sell them for cash to unknown buyers.  The trustee would take that cash and purchase new assets that would be completely unknown to Trump.  That is clearly not possible in this situation.

Here is why:

It would take years to sell all of Trump’s assets. Selling a single asset such as Trump Tower would take more than a year to properly market, find a buyer, arrange financing, and close.  It has been reported that Trump is involved in over 500 businesses.  Most likely, he would be out of office long before all his assets would be even be sold in order to setup a Blind Trust.

Because each of the assets are one-of-a-kind assets and easily identifiable, we all would know who the buyers of the assets would be.  They could even use that as a way to funnel money to Trump.  Indeed, any asset that Trump sold would immediately bring out the critics who would complain that the sale was just another hidden bribe for Trump.

Much of the value of Trump’s assets is the Trump Name itself.  Divesting an asset without the Trump name could decimate its value, causing Trump significant financial losses.  Because so many of his assets are heavily mortgaged, it might not even be possible to find a buyer to take the asset without the Trump Name at a price sufficient to retire the mortgage.   Without Trump or his family managing the businesses, the Trump Name would lose much of its value, so even selling a business with the name still attached could be a dismal prospect.

Some assets may prove impossible to sell.  For example, Trump does not own the new hotel in Washington.  He only leases it from the government.  Yet he has spent over $200 million renovating it.  It would be hard for him to recoup that investment when he doesn’t even own the hotel.  All he has to sell is the lease itself.

Much of Trump’s income now is generated by licensing his name.  Are we really expecting him to sell the rights to his own name?   And what value would his name be without him?

All of these assets together constitute the Trump Organization.  Broken apart, they will lose much of their value.  Even intact, they would lose value if the Trump family were removed from its operation and ownership.

Physically, it’s not possible to sell Trump’s assets in a timely manner, nor could they be sold anonymously.  Ethically, each and every sale would be subject to the same potential income conflicts that are the issues if he does not sell.  Finally, it would not be fair to require Trump to destroy a business started by his father, and that he has spent his own lifetime building.

So what is the answer?

Trump’s own plan announced today was a step in the right direction.   Putting his kids in charge frees up Trump’s time, but we all know that he will still know of every decision that the kids make, and probably still will be approving them.   Stopping all new foreign deals is also a very good idea.

At the very minimum, he should make every effort to be completely transparent on all his dealings.  He absolutely should release his tax returns, and it would be a great sign of good faith for his kids to do so as well.